China’s population is aging rapidly. With its incredibly low birth rate, we can expect a huge economic and societal impact. For a very good NYT article on the subject go here.
Ken Carroll
China’s aging population
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TIME TO MOVE – I tend to think that in the end wealth is reflected in a society’s infrastructure. Right now China money is being put into highrises, shopping centers, streets, factories and research centers. It’s necessary, but I hope that the money starts to find it’s way back to more liveable housing. Right now the big megopolises are razing the smaller walkable sociable neighborhoods to put up the revenue and tax generating megastructures. Money needs to find a way out of these big buildings. The days of needing an Empire State Building or a Hong Kong 2 IFC can be retired if the powerbrokers realize they are too old to live in these steel mountains.
Perhaps the internet, the wiring or wireless’ing of the world will allow development and business to spread people and business outward. This will mean that granny and gramps can live in a nice home without seven flights of stairs, close to neighbors, and have access to modern medical services and goods because their children can work away from a city center. It’s defenitely do-able, but is maybe China 4.0.
Part of the shift is creating businesses that don’t have to be completely centered in Shanghai, Beijing or Shenzen so that capital can flow out off the city centers and talent can live interesting lives it the ‘villages. So when are you taking Cpod truely mobile and making the studio and staff at least part of the time remote? You know a whole train carriage can be booked, and there’s a sunny island that has lots of coconuts for a thirsty staff.
Just think Ken, now is the time to plan your retirement, do you want to be blogging in a dimly lit highrise or in a home looking at the sunrise?
I believe the economist ran an article a while back along the lines of no-one has to ‘fear the rise of China’ because in ten-twenty years it will be held back (or bankrupted) by the disproportionate size of its elderly population with respect to those of working age.
But then ‘fear of China’ stories make the news these days: did anyone see the one about Chinese algae invading Venice? This may be factually true but, as several high-ranking google search results for ‘chinese algae venice’ demonstrates, this is ‘made topical’ for the English speaking world (it is a local story for the people of Venice after all) through the ‘fear of china’ perspective, for (cherry-picked) example:
“First came the counterfeit designer handbags. Then, the cheap Chinese textiles that pose a threat to livelihoods throughout the region round Venice. / But what no one knew until Friday was that the Venetian lagoon itself was stealthily being invaded by another competitive far eastern import.” (http://www.buzzle.com/editorials/6-23-2006-100308.asp)
Ok, at the risk of repeating others.
This sounds bad! This sounds very bad, and is very worrying!
What can be done ??
This is bad enough to make me feel very sad.
Here is an interesting article: http://english.people.com.cn/english/200004/12/eng20000412_38730.html
I’m guessing the big picture is too ulimately decrease the overall population? I think that something that’s never been achieved in the history of human race, populations have always increase.
I think it’s a wise move though. To at least try to keep the world population at close to a constant value and preferably at a decreasing rate for a temporary period. Otherwise we are going to need a second planet in the near future, or maybe forcing ourselves to colonize space isn’t such a bad thing? We may not bother trying otherwise.